Compounded Average Growth Rate (CAGR) by Area
Ski proximate submarkets have performed remarkably well over the past 20 years with a CAGR approximating 5.25%.
The worst performing periods were 1998-1999 when capital was diverted to double digit stock market bubble returns
and the post 9/11 terrorism/war years of 2001-2003. 2004 marked the beginning of Federal monetary policy manipulation
producing the biggest real estate bull market run in Post Depression history, until the good times came to an end in
1st quarter 2008. High water mark valuations have dropped by about 20% but at the cost of decreasing overall volume by half.
Ski Proximate Neighborhood Analysis
The spread between Active listings and trailing 12 month price per square foot Sold averages has started to narrow
as compared to 2009 when the market collapsed. Each pair of submarket bars measure the average asking price per square
foot versus the average sold price for calendar year 2010. Vail-Lionshead has the greatest spread at 19%, Cascade
Glen-Lyon is out of the running due to insufficient data points, Beaver Creek's 12% premium is the most favorable,
with East-to-West Vail almost squarely in the middle at 14%.
Property prices are a
function of these numbers times square feet. In order to estimate any anticipated cost in these skiproximate
neighborhoods simply choose an envelope size and multiply times the Solds number. The green background bars represent
standard deviation which measures the plus/minus range for the center two thirds of the data field after eliminating
Footnote: Bars represent (1) Standard Deviation +/- from the average price/s.f. Standard Deviation is a measure of the dispersion of a set of data
from its mean. The greater the rate spread, the higher the deviation. Standard Deviation is calculated as the square root of variance. Active
listing premium is determined by average active price/s.f. divided by sold price/s.f. - the number above 1.0 represents the percentage premium.
Properties Sold by Neighborhood
Inventory levels remain surprisingly modest with no real evidence of over-supply for properties priced less than $2.5 million,
two bedrooms minimum. Beaver Creek has the highest Actives versus Solds ratio (85/35) at 2.43 years to sell, followed by
Vail-Lionshead (57/30) at 1.90, with East-to-West Vail the tightest (72/47) at 1.53. These levels of absorption are quite
typical of the past 20 years making further price reductions unlikely given current market conditions.